I had been digging around my house while and managed to shore up various mint-in-box (MIB) Lego stuff I had from the mid to late 90’s. Some I knew would be worth something some day, which is why I picked them up long time ago. A friend of mine though had asked me how I could determine what was and wasn’t valuable and I gave him a fairly lengthy explanation on my theories. He was quite impressed and suggested that I blog upon the subject. So I decided to finally write up a little article on my feelings on the subject for those who might want to get into collecting Lego.
As a long time collector, what I value the most are sets that add a new dimension to my collection. Over the years, Lego has produced so many sets, themes and certain types of sets (e.g. fire stations) that you have to be pretty discerning when it comes to things that would really add value to your collection. In my case, I prefer sets that are not produced that frequently. Sets like Fire Stations, Police Stations and X-Wings make their rounds every few years, so their value might not be as high as compared to say a post office.
The thing is that Lego sees certain types of sets as their highest sellers like police or fire, which is why they put these out often. Despite their frequency, not all fire stations nor police stations are built equally and the quality over the years have varied tremendously. For instance, the more recent fire station was probably their best yet and will be an excellent choice to pick up. However, the forest police station set felt disappointing compared to one done back in 1993. It wasn’t just the size that made a statement about these types of sets but just the overall quality of the sets. For instance, the forest set felt too specific and required a more natural setting, whereas the one from 1993 had a more generic quality that could be re-purposed for non-police activities like an office building.
But if we go back to the post office example, it’s the rarity of these sets that make them so valuable. In the case of city Lego, think of how one might build the perfect town. A hardcore collector would want the most variety in their town with original sets from Lego. Certainly, one can acquire numerous sets, both generic and specific ones, to substitute and form their own creations. However, this route never feels “official” which is why I feel collectors psychologically prefer putting their “trust” into Lego in producing official sets.
Beyond buildings, what about vehicles? Vehicles are much harder to judge on average and won’t be worth nearly as much as a building style Lego set. Part of the reason is that vehicles tend to be smaller so their value won’t be nearly as much in 10-20 years vs a building. Another aspect that I feel is important is that the utility of a vehicle will be important in judging it’s value over time. Some vehicles like off road trucks, race cars and motorcycle carrier types lack value because they aren’t used by most people in a regular city. However, if you have something like a convertible car, bus, taxi, etc. those tend to be more valuable because they are seen frequently in a normal city, hence having more value.
Another important aspect is the width of vehicles. I think one major issue over the years is that many city vehicles now have moved beyond the traditional 4 stud width to 6+ studs. The problem arises for compatibility with older systems, which make roads heavy/crowded and even a little awkward. While the dimensions might be more accurate in terms of scale, I think people prefer consistency. Some sets like the giant dump truck really add nothing since they are too large and bulky for most normal towns. Even if Lego does not produce such a set that often, the size ends up hurting the value of the set due to the inability to integrate into most towns.
If we switch genres slightly and look at Space and even Star Wars Lego, we can see similar patterns emerge. I think Lego has tremendously decreased the value of many Star Wars Lego sets by re-issuing certain types of sets with slight variations on the architecture. In some cases, the new architecture seemed to improve upon some core issues (for instance, the original Millennium Falcon) but having two separate types of sets once again creates incompatibility issues. Thus, the only model worth buying for Millennium Falcons is the Ultimate Collectors Edition (just because it, indeed, is the Ultimate Collectors Edition).
Space does not fall under the same issue as Lego has been pretty good about making space quite distinct, even though there is a general methodology/style for how they produce their Space sets. The real trick though is figuring out what constitutes a “good” vs “bad” theme. To me if you decide to pursue Space Lego collection, what you should focus on is an entire theme. I would say that 75-80% of the Space themes are pretty good on average; it’s pretty rare for Lego to produce a bad theme. But it can happen and here are my tips to discerning between a good and bad theme.
One of the most important things in a good space theme is the type of pieces that the theme offers. Some themes have a lot of highly specialized parts that are close to impossible to design around. Take the UFO and bug series. While the sets might’ve looked “cool,” they were not easy to create new sets from those as a result of certain parts. I think part of the issue is that most people are accustomed to earth bound industrial design, so attempting to create another bug-type of vehicle might be close to impossible for most people.
Another important element is the playability for space Lego sets. While Town is all about the variety, space is all about playability. How many things can you do with this set? Are there tons of moving parts? Is the set modular? Are there a diversified cast of mini figures included? A tiny vehicle of around 20 pieces won’t get you much, but the larger space craft from the Ice Planet series will.
Another really important feature to me is the colors of a set. My problem with Space Lego is that I’m pretty old school when it comes to my expectations of a “good” Space set. So part of my judgment centers around some basic colors (namely white, gray, blue as well as certain supporting transparent colors like yellow). Usually, Lego has very good taste when it comes to how they choose colors for their themes. Yet not all theme colors occur frequently, making compatibility between themes rough at times. Take for instance the Magnetron series. It was probably the first series where Lego broke away from the three or four basic color groups and used red. While the sets themselves were decent, the red color and neon yellow-green tinted transparent parts made this series stand by itself (and from what I remember have not occurred since).
Mini-figures too are a highly valuable element. When the Ice Planet series came out, Lego introduced the first female in space with the Ice Babe mini figure. That made the Ice Defender and base from that period extremely valuable (especially the Ice Defender). Even the mini figure herself was sought after just on the gender merit.
Next I want to delve into Castle, Pirate and even movie themed sets like Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter. Castle sets these days honestly do not bring that special of a feeling. Lego has a nasty tendency to reinvent the wheel here over and over. You can practically buy one castle and see something similar in a few years. There have been a few very good designs but nothing absolutely must-have. However, where the real value in the Castle series stand out is the supporting sets. For instance, years ago they had an inn set which a maid. That set’s value became so inflated that Lego finally re-issued the original set. But it was valuable because the architecture had set it vastly apart from the other castles that came about.
There have been real dogs too like the 1996 dragon series. The dragons that came with these sets just looked cheap and the castles and dwellings looked like they were designed by a 2 year old. Perhaps for the hardcore collector, sets like these still will remain must haves, but the value really aren’t great because of the poor design.
Pirates are another odd theme that has made itself insanely valuable. I feel that Lego had no idea what to do here outside of a few basic ship types and created tons of playsets that had a staggering spectrum of flavors and quality. For myself, I saw the Pirate theme as something that you could potentially integrate into the Castle theme. There are a lot of cross over elements between the two series and though period-wise they might not match up nicely. Nevertheless, being able to connect two sets together fluidly is a key aspect I look for in a good set.
How about movie themed series like Harry Potter, Spider man, etc.? I feel that most of these series are catered towards children, using the movie as a marketing device to pique their interest. The design behind these sets are more focused around playability rather than architecture so many don’t feel all that “complete.” In the case of Spider Man, they had elements that could go with a city. So I would look after those.
In the case of Harry Potter, they had quite a few fairly well designed sets such as the castle. However, Harry Potter started to get into the rut where Lego would redesign the same few sets over and over again. So unless you’re going for the entire collection, you could easily miss a year and find something similar in a year or two.
Other movie themed sets or gimmicky series really are hit and miss. I think that some like Sponge Bob Square Pants are great for kids but not for the collector. These series can be overproduced but don’t necessarily provide high collectable value. Once in a while you can get a really nifty set like the Batmobile, but I just feel that these are too gimmicky. My own mindset as a collector is simply about increasing my collection and bringing life to my towns, etc. Movie themed sets just feel too specialized on average or too gimmicky to be worth much. Also, there’s a high chance that Lego will sign a long term deal with one of these companies and produce vast quantities of sets that end up becoming highly popularized over time.
Finally, there are generic sets and even Technic. I’m not really a huge Technic fan so I can’t comment on that side. But the generic sets are just that: generic. They exist to provide a learning tool for youngsters or act as a parts buffer when you need to build something that would normally take 4-5 other sets to put together (say your own mall or hotel). Because there’s no rarity in them outside of the date produced and little to no design, they have little value. You can go to the store and pick up a few mindlessly and just add them to your collection without worrying about tarnishing your collection. Thus, in the long run they don’t have a lot of meaning to a collector who might seek out something like a barber shop (if it’s ever produced).
At any rate, these are my opinions as well as what I speculate how other collectors might think. I hope you enjoyed this post and as always I would love to see other collectors’ opinions on this subject.