en-us http://www.keithwatanabe.net/index.php Keith Watanabe's Website http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/7/28/ed3e3b45a4301ffbdf295b93b5102e27.html
If America (or any company, etc.) really has interest in pushing the limits for space travel, they need t o thrum up more vibe through constant updates in news and getting the public more involved. Obviously, the average American won't have the wallet to even consider getting aboard one of these flights in their entire lifetime. Something tells me economics is playing too much of a pathetic game in hindering the progress for such a critical development in society.

On that note, I think other major tech companies should become more involved with such projects. Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, etc. should all play key roles in helping to spurt development in space exploration. They've already been progressing areas in online technology. Google has even taken initiative in Green technology in using solar power from Energy Innovations. This is definitely a worthy cause in putting money into. I see a company like Microsoft squandering billions of dollars a year in attempting to replicate what their competition is doing. Instead of playing copycat, why not focus their efforts in something innovative like space exploration where it seems dollars are difficult to scrounge up?

This is something extremely disappointing in all parties involved. Hopefully, they can remedy this in the near future to really push Man's dreams of space exploration.]]> Sat, 28 Jul 2007 22:24:29 -0600 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/7/28/ed3e3b45a4301ffbdf295b93b5102e27.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/9/4/1237b77a898216c4b337fa09d09570a3.html
That said, I think the real key to the article isn't what's possible in 50 years. We now have real time video conferencing, which seemed so cool in the movie Aliens and that movie was shown in 1986. So forget timelines. Time honestly means nothing. It's all about goals and budget and whether the stimulus exists in mainstream culture. But pointing specifically to the article, I can safely say that I've seen some parallel thinking between myself and this writer:

- Environmental concerns for planets outside of Earth (in this case Mars)
- The colonization of Mars
- The complete exploration of the solar system
- Utilizing nanotechnology to terraform planets (i.e. Mars)
- Space platforms (stations)
- Primary colonists being scientists, businessmen and engineers
- The issue of energy
- Titan as a source for colonization
- The moon being heavily colonized
- The motivation of moving away from earth as preserving one's culture

Whether or not these things will come to fruition in the next 50 years really is irrelevant to me. Again I emphasize events vs timeframes because I've personally witnessed the massive growth of something dear to me (computing) which was generated heavily through the demand from society. Also, witness the incredible growth in modernizing engines due to the high demand of gas, thus impelling the auto industry to change by moving towards more fuel efficient cars. You can't put your finger on a single date and expect something to occur.

What you can do is demonstrate what people want because of inefficiencies or shortcomings in society. Changing topics slightly, if we were to pinpoint some of those elements, here's some trends I see emerging:

- Improving energy production (moving away from inefficient, environment damaging, limited resources like oil and harnessing more efficient or abundant resources like solar power)
- Population escalation (China and India will fare the worst)
- Strains on other limited resources due to population escalation (natural food, water, forests, etc.)
- Increased density in major cities
- Increased forms of bacterial outbreaks from the toxins caused through pollution or chemicals in foods
- Increased forms of disease as the population increases, space shrinks, living conditions worsen, poverty levels soar, mutations come about from chemicals and toxins in the air, food and growing radiation (since the ozone layer is depleting)
- Decreasing quality of life as the middle class shrinks while the levels of poverty increase

I think the increasing population in this world will be the #1 motivating factor among anything. It's a simple formula: more people = less resources. All decisions will be based off that. Also, I often point to the increasing levels of poverty. While the world will mature, what I don't see changing much is that there will be more money floating around or that goods will be cheaper. I think goods will continue to skyrocket in price, currently highly prized skills like tech will become commonplace, thus making that industry moot, save for the few that run it and that we're bound to hit a major wall soon in terms of expanding the most important tasks in computing. Instead, other forms of education would have to be emphasized with math and sciences being the biggest. I see America slowly getting nailed in these categories and then corporate America selling its own out (as if they haven't already) by moving the money even moreso offshore. But the reasons this time wouldn't be because the talent is cheaper, but because the talent is just better.

I also forecast more disease in the world. The outbreaks in Hong Kong to me were just foreshadowing of larger, more serious plagues brought on by confined living conditions. I think medical science, compared to computer science, is just too slow moving to make meaningful leaps to prevent major outbreaks from occurring. I'd prefer to see advances in that area more than in space.

The other huge problem are resources. We're just eating things up and not replacing them. Or rather what we're replacing is utter crud. It's making us sick with all the unnatural chemicals. It's quite possible that we'll manufacture our own virus through eating something as simple as a carrot. Then what do you do about things like the rain forests or melting glaciers in Antartica? While I doubt we'll see something as dramatic as The Day After Tomorrow, I have no question in my mind that more Katrinas will be on their way without more prevention occurring via the governments.

At any rate, these things will somehow create a necessary catalyst to propel the next generation of technology and space exploration. Perhaps, a war will arise or that countries like China and India find it necessary to catapult themselves to the stars faster than America. But those type of things will trigger the world into moving faster into space. It's just a matter of when that will occur.]]> Tue, 04 Sep 2007 11:38:18 -0600 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/9/4/1237b77a898216c4b337fa09d09570a3.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/9/5/67b608d1a96c4692d39344787765bcf4.html
Rather than trying to answer why, I prefer proposing a similar solution: rapid prototyping for space exploration and medical science. I was looking at Idealabs' Desktop Factory company, thinking that there's something there that has potential. Also, Lego's Lego Factory software which allows people to model something in 3d, send it off to Lego and have your model be ready. But this is the thing: we need something that is easy to help us manufactur goods instantly. Kinda like scripting for physical objects. You build part of the machine or gadget and with your prototype generating machine, you get your object in real space. Take for example a phone. My phone has two major flaws: one button occasionally turns Yahoo browsing on by accident and another button constantly tries to exit when I'm writing an email. Perhaps my gadget machine and prototyping software could allow me to redesign my phone so I can place those buttons elsewhere.

Now take those ideas and apply them to space exploration. Maybe you can prototype your own rover. Obviously, it means that you won't have a complete environment to simulate having a rover travelling through hostile Martian environment, but imagine the commercial implications for that.

I think we already have a form of medical science scripting; some people might call it Methlabs and such. But if somehow tools were provided for people to allow people to diagnose themselves and treat themselves, maybe we wouldn't have to wait for a cure for AIDS and the like. I feel that medicine reminds of the days before all the kiddies got involved in the internet and that only the highest calibre professionals could makea difference in computing. But all you really had were the Microsofts of the world controlling the output. So maybe we're holding ourselves back by allowing only a few elite to participate in these fields.

Imagine if there were some notions of Design Patterns for medicine. So some hack can still learn how to be a genetic architect without all the years in a lab.

Either way, I know we're missing something. There's something blocking the faster progress for these areas. I think part of it is the teaching methods and forcing kids to go through this long, arduous and somewhat pointless route rather than allow people to use shortcuts in a meaningful manner. I'm not saying cheating is the best strategy, but if you get positive results and it helps society, then why not use them?]]> Wed, 05 Sep 2007 14:31:03 -0600 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/9/5/67b608d1a96c4692d39344787765bcf4.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/10/4/d55c327bc68065d44caa85ef36a6c27a.html
1) Returning to the Moon by 2020. I think this date is preposterous and too far into the future. To me, I feel that other countries, most notably China, India and possibly even Japan, will already accomplish this feat sooner. NASA needs to be far more aggressive with this date. By this time, NASA should not only have returned to the Moon, but they also should have several outposts/habitats.
2) Sending larger payloads to the Moon ahead of time. I think if NASA isn't ready to send large troves of people by this period, then definitely they'll need to haul fair sized payloads to the Moon. Hopefully, NASA plans redundancy in case of failure. When sending payloads, NASA should consider city-like visions in terms of the planning involved here. My considerations for handling this would be focusing on launch pads, mining tools, raw materials for future development, mass quantities of non-perishable food. They really need to consider future, fast expansion here.
3) The whole "step-in" spacesuits. This looks like a flatout idiotic concept. It's far too risky, although what's seems to be the theme here is cost savings and space reduction. Don't skimp on the cost if it means preserving lives.

I hope that the architects re-consider these plans. It seems like they're just fudging with a limited budget rather than planning something practical. Kinda sad, really.]]> Thu, 04 Oct 2007 07:43:04 -0600 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/10/4/d55c327bc68065d44caa85ef36a6c27a.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/10/25/3ec2319d304fd9ff1182d3d36c6052fd.html
Regardless, I'm hoping that everything goes well with the mission and that NASA and the other space agencies around the world can complete this thing by 2010.

Have a safe trip home, boys!]]> Thu, 25 Oct 2007 11:02:56 -0600 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/10/25/3ec2319d304fd9ff1182d3d36c6052fd.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/11/20/f1e53d8da3f6955962d4a84e9d092cc5.html
However, I started to think that perhaps NASA and/or future space station construction projects might try something new. Like automatic bolting. Imagine something like a Lego set, except that the pegs inflate inside another module and bolts automatically screw in airtight to the module. From there, power and cables would have some sort of interface that just "snaps" in, once the outer shell is connected, sealed and confirmed for zero leakage.

EIther way, it'll be cool seeing the next series of modules hooked up to the ISS, namely the Japanese Kibo module and the European Columbus module going out only in a few weeks. From what I understand, these modules will also increase occupancy as well as provide for future science endeavors. It'd be neat to see what kind of facilties these modules may include. But that's being saved up in the next few months.]]> Tue, 20 Nov 2007 09:34:23 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/11/20/f1e53d8da3f6955962d4a84e9d092cc5.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/12/29/91e4caff6725864a718b5f632ef6b5f0.html
I'll be 33 this year and things didn't exactly go as planned this year. I was planning to make $2 million and that obviously did not come to fruition. So do I make this year an exception in that perhaps I was off by a year (since I'm always off by one) or do I go a different route? Right now, I'm still debating. For myself, I have three things that I'm juggling:

1. Build my own application in the hopes of someone buying it out
2. Focusing the entire year on getting my Japanese level up
3. Improving on my writing

1) is something that is always too hard to put a bet on. I've built several applications already but no one uses them. I can't tell if it's simply because of bad UI, not enough time to support them or my lack of leadership skills in enticing more people to come and use them. Either way, I'm not sure if I should waste anymore time on this. Since I'm in a much better environment, I have no excuse NOT to train my Japanese. It looks like a sure bet to go this route. Besides, why even be in Japan when I can barely speak (well, "barely speak" meaning that I'm not handling the language as fluently as I'd like).

I want to handle my writing too. But I'm the type of person that needs focus. So I have to split my time between either the Japanese or the writing, but I'm coming to realize that it's not easy doing this. So right now, it looks like I might focus all my energy on my Japanese once work starts again. I've been promising myself for a long time that I want to pass the 2-kyuu exam. I've got enough friends to help me out so I think that will be my huge plan for the year.

Regardless, I think this is the year I'll get engaged, if not married. No, I don't have anyone right now. But I think I should make a real effort to get someone this year. Probably improving my Japanese will help in this, since my past killer has been my lack of language skills in elegantly presenting myself and talking about anything that doesn't involve fart, dick and gay jokes (just kidding but at least the fart and dating jokes were kinda bland). My Japanese needs to match my English level for me to feel comfortable here. I think if that occurs, people might realize that I'm not just a foul mouthed person, but someone with depth.

Between April through May, I plan to fix up the plumbing in my mom's home. I figure that's a $5k project. If I can get that fixed, repair the sidedoors, ceiling, back door, replace the tiling in the family room, replace the toilet near my room and replace all three sinks, the house will be in excellent condition for another 20 years.

By August, I will reassess my financial situation and see if the time is right to make my first real estate purchase. With the subprime loan crisis hitting, home sales slowing, and the government intervening by lowering the lending rates, it seems like a sure shot to at least take a serious glance at some real estate on the market. I still think that Las Vegas is the place to target. I've already spotted some cheap condos at least online. The next plan would be to physically check them out and see if their location is ideal as a long term investment vehicle. My guess is that real estate will continue to go down, but at the very least, I want to make sure homes are affordable.

Project and business-wise, this will be an exciting year for me. I saw my company's roadmap and it's ambitious. Also, I know of various internal projects that I'm just waiting to sink my teeth into. If I can balance that with my home life, it should be a very profitable year in terms of knowledge.

From a global perspective, this coming year is going to be a mixed bag. I think with the Pakistani leader recently assassinated, we'll see various forms of retribution along with heat from many countries, especially the US. I don't know if this will move the US into action (or as I say, give the US an excuse to start something), but it's too hard to say how far this will escalate.

Once we're into the 1st quarter, it'll be interesting to see how holiday sales have performed. It's been noted that consumer confidence is down, especially from rumblings of the looming recession. I always figure that Christmas is the best indicator of yearly consumer confidence, as people tend to put more on credit. If Christmas sales are down, the next recession might last 2-3 years (about the same as the last one). Right now, it seems the current target is against the credit market, so many finance companies will feel more blows coming their way. But seriously, if they didn't have all these fraudulent schemes to blackmail consumers into getting into more debt, then these companies might have stronger businesses, rather than periodic booms. Overall, I think the financial market will be hit hard throughout the year from people who are unable to pay. This will play a huge part into a lowering stock market (great time to buy!!!!), lowering interest rates, deflation and the USD moving even lower.

With the writers' strikes continuing, I think consumers will continue to move towards online forms of entertainment. It's inevitable. The tools for creating and distributing one's own media has become easy. Not to mention free or cheap (e.g. web cameras). The main thing Hollywood and these various recording mafias hold that the average people do not possess have traditional been the means of production. It's completely Marxist yet dead on the mark. They had labs to produce unbelievable CGI effects and could distribute and market them globally. Youtube and other online companies threaten that aspect. What Hollywood studios do not realize is that the threat of piracy is NOT their biggest enemy. Their biggest enemy is losing control over distribution. Perhaps the layman may not produce the best effects, but considering how abused these CGI houses are and producing awful pictures that emphasize form over content, why bother?

And take reality TV. It's a dead issue. Who wants to see hasbeen actors, models, and overdosed rockstars show what decrepit, decadent beings that they've wasted their money on becoming? Anyone can produce a far more interesting reality show without any budget or the necessity of paying a hasbeen an undeserved paycheck. The thing is that we don't need theatres, and video rentals anymore. And that's where the power of online media will free the average citizen while certifying the demise of the big media industry as we know it.

This year (while this may not be a prediction) what needs to occur is a serious movie produced by an independent film crew that becomes a huge success on the internet. That will demonstrate the real threat of what the internet is to the movie studios.

Politically, I think this year will be hot because of the election. The question will be difficult to answer because the candidates (at least from the Democrats' side) are quite strong in comparison. I don't feel there's a single Republican that can easily represent the voice of America this time around. So what it'll boil down to is either Obama or Clinton getting the duke. I think Obama will probably win this one. I don't think America is ready for a female president yet and personally, I don't feel Clinton would make a good over ambassador. Being Bill's wife I think actually stigmitizes her rather than elevates her position. People are looking for something fresh and someone that's going to help the country recover in the various embarrassments and pitfalls Bush and his goons got the country into for the past 8 years. The first four years will be amending the damage done to the country while the following four will be paving the future. I don't think Clinton has that kind of vision. Obama just feels to be slightly more clued into the people. And that's the real issue that needs to be addressed.

2008 the internet will get hotter in terms of competition. The services will massively improve as understanding of richweb applications improve. But it'll be the online advertisement sector that'll lead this charge. While big media will slowly get nailed in their inability to cope with online media, it's obvious that they still want to get a piece of the action. But I think that their percentage will be tiny and that it'll hurt their revenue overall, leading them to lose further ground while the Big Three (Google, Yahoo, Apple) suck in massive deals. In general, be in a web company for 2008. It's going to great!

NASA/JPL will continue to have a rough year. I think that NASA will avoid disaster, but their chief enemy will be budget cuts from the Bush administration. Science just doesn't seem like a priority for the Bush administration. So they'll have to be patient until 2009 when the switch occurs.

While space will suffer from bureaucratic entanglements, green technologies will see new heights. Oil prices will shrink, leading more scares by the general public into moving towards hybrids. As such Japanese manufacturers will see great gains as their entire lineups move towards hybrid technologies. Where does that leave American automobiles? Hopefully, these companies get a huge slap in the face and stop being lazy in denying the impossibility of achieving better fuel standards. Rather than emphasizing size, American automanufacturers should look at the current situation as a prime point to reinvest money into research and switch gears completely towards fuel economy and price. If the Japanese are putting out 55/60 mph for one gallon at $28000, US manufacturers should aim at 60-80 mph/gallon at $20000. While the law recently was passed to force manufacturers to commit to higher standards, the manufacturers themselves should take initative to achieve even better matrics for themselves.]]> Sat, 29 Dec 2007 03:02:09 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/12/29/91e4caff6725864a718b5f632ef6b5f0.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/23/dbe364465b37d5669fab035477556205.html SpaceShipTwo, which is the much anticipated more or less first ever publicly available ship for space tourism.

I'm not sure about the practicality of what they intend though. Currently, the design only allows for 4 minutes of weightlessness in space. Considering the price tag of $200k/flight one way, this prevents ordinary people from partaking in this journey and only the elite of society can live a partial dream of moving to space, but it seems only novel. I mean, I don't think it's going to be like a cruise ship and the size is too small to really be able to do much.

Part of me believes that this situation is similar to the old, first Creative MP3 player when it came out. Clunky, fat, and limited in terms of portability and battery life, the Creative player lost quickly to the iPod, which had a far better interface and more practicality. In other words, SpaceShipTwo and Virgin Galactic might be the first to pioneer the concepts of space tourism in practice, but someone else is certainly going to do better.

We need to think of practical application for this such as moving from destination to destination. At the moment, there aren't obviously a lot of "space ports" around. So are people expected just to take flight and come back to the same landing spot? I mean, I would imagine a great application for this would've been to figure out how to cross the Pacific/Atlantic faster. But again you need those space ports placed around the world to make that application practical.

Also, the 4 minute mark of weightlessness seems like a low standard. While you can say that it's an achievement, I consider $200k/4 minutes to be quite the ripoff for nothing more than an expensive thrill. If I were these guys, I'd also be thinking of building commercial space stations that you can refuel. Not that clunker ISS, but I'm talking something elegant, allowing people to travel and conduct business or get away from earthbound life.

At any rate, I congratulate them on their move towards getting us off the planet. But also, I just hope that these people start setting the bar higher.]]> Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:14:24 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/23/dbe364465b37d5669fab035477556205.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/2/7/5feedd76546d5679a547bfc09884b63f.html NASA and the European Space Agency as Atlantis heads towards the ISS. This mission has been delayed from two months ago where NASA was to deliver the ESA's Columbus module, Europe's contribution to the ISS project. This module will function as a research facility. A lot of us Earth dwellers are very eager in seeing the ISS come to fruition as it represents many of our dreams for mankind to make his way towards outer space.]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2008 17:13:26 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/2/7/5feedd76546d5679a547bfc09884b63f.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/3/7/2d3b12d03107a9fc028a6985da00fe01.html
In some ways, this discovery makes me reflect upon Galilieo's finding of Jupiter's 4 major moons. That whole concept had huge implications in demonstrating that the Sun and stars did not revolve around the Earth. This discovery is just another way of demonstrating the universe's apathy towards Man's ignorance.]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 08:18:29 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/3/7/2d3b12d03107a9fc028a6985da00fe01.html