en-us http://www.keithwatanabe.net/index.php Keith Watanabe's Website http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/11/5/de0a1c4a65f818fa6d7934d2ccbb15df.html
Apparently, there's going to be a harbor and road construction set along with some delivery type of sets (minus the delivery center). I really like the fact that Lego has been putting a little more effort on the variety of sets, although they still repeatedly push forth the fire, police and gas station sets every 2-3 years.

The other notable set is the dwarves theme. Combining their Harry Potter leftovers, Lego is creating their own branded Lord of the Rings type of theme. Unfortunately for whatever reason, Lego missed out on the whole marketing potential when Peter Jackson's movie came out. However, one could argue, by the design of these sets, that Lego could cross promote it with the World of Warcraft theme. All Lego is missing are the elves and you could play a miniature version of Warcraft.

The next big premier is Indiana Jones. This was a natural fit considering that the 4th movie (God save us from Spielberg!!) is coming out in the next year or so. This one they had prepared for long before since they had their own branded Johnny Thunder Adventures series. Although missing out on LOTR, they definitely are doing a preemptive marketing strike by putting out the Indiana Jones series. From the looks of it, not much is different from the Adventure series so it seems at least with regards to Indy, Lego had some prescience to preconceive of the sets beforehand.

More Exo-force will be due as well. I can't say I'm coocoo over the brand, although I have my collection sitting on my shelf. I'm hoping here from what I've seen that Lego limits the production of these sets to just the robotic skeletons. Their larger playsets are just far too big for my area and blowing my budget out of proportion.

Now, the whole Lego Creator series, especially the ones focusing on homes and such have been my personal favorites and are commendable additions in the past few years. A few weeks ago I had purchased the tan colored house (don't have the number off the top of my head) and felt that I should pick up two more (as well as the other house as well). These are designed so well with the wonderful thought of having three WHOLE models with additional instructions, that they're actually worth buying a few. I've pretty much been skipping out on Star Wars and the Aqua Raiders sets and focusing more on the house stuff because those sets are what I really am looking for in Lego.

This time around is no exception. They've got a smaller, yellow house which looks like a great compliment to the other two. I like the fact that each time, they're varying the colors and models for these. The thing is that you can easily collect a few of these models without great penalty to your pocket book and still create a visually pleasant and varied scenary. It's the whole difference in architecture between say Las Vegas and NYC.

The Star Wars items look bleh to me. They have a few new interesting space ship sets, but they still aren't producing many bases. Ever since Star Wars came along, Lego has produced almost no space bases, except for the recent Mars Mission one, which tended to be overwhelming and space consumptious. I truly miss the old style of the Beta-1 Command Base, the Space Supply Station, the Intergalactic Space Station, etc. Worse yet, episodes 1-3 never truly produced any gorgeous/handsome ships, so there never has been a lot of motivation on my part to run out and grab a ton of those sets (compared to episodes 4-6 where I have some ridiculous number of X-Wings, Y-Wings, A-Wings, and B-Wings. Not to mention 3 Millenium Falcons, two Imperial Star Destroyers and a plenty of Tie Fighters). I hope that someday Lego's deal with Lucas ends because I really want to see them move away from regurgitating X-Wings and come up with some innovative space models again. Mars Mission was interesting but I felt like I was partly playing Command and Conquer 3, not building the next generation of the Exploriens Star ship, etc.

Going back to the police segment, I'm really sick of them making these sets, although it's obvious that the police and fire sets are their bread winners for the town theme. That said, one day I plan to unite most of my police sets together and formulate the most advanced police station around (okay, I know there are far more crazed collectors than me who have already done something unbelievable; but I'm just talking for myself). I've got so many of these sets that I'm chomping at the bit where I have my own home, with my own Lego room where i can just concentrate on building something killer.

Anyway, the good items this year look REALLY good. I'm enthused and really looking forward to wasting a few more dollars on these things.]]> Mon, 05 Nov 2007 08:59:15 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/11/5/de0a1c4a65f818fa6d7934d2ccbb15df.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/12/29/91e4caff6725864a718b5f632ef6b5f0.html
I'll be 33 this year and things didn't exactly go as planned this year. I was planning to make $2 million and that obviously did not come to fruition. So do I make this year an exception in that perhaps I was off by a year (since I'm always off by one) or do I go a different route? Right now, I'm still debating. For myself, I have three things that I'm juggling:

1. Build my own application in the hopes of someone buying it out
2. Focusing the entire year on getting my Japanese level up
3. Improving on my writing

1) is something that is always too hard to put a bet on. I've built several applications already but no one uses them. I can't tell if it's simply because of bad UI, not enough time to support them or my lack of leadership skills in enticing more people to come and use them. Either way, I'm not sure if I should waste anymore time on this. Since I'm in a much better environment, I have no excuse NOT to train my Japanese. It looks like a sure bet to go this route. Besides, why even be in Japan when I can barely speak (well, "barely speak" meaning that I'm not handling the language as fluently as I'd like).

I want to handle my writing too. But I'm the type of person that needs focus. So I have to split my time between either the Japanese or the writing, but I'm coming to realize that it's not easy doing this. So right now, it looks like I might focus all my energy on my Japanese once work starts again. I've been promising myself for a long time that I want to pass the 2-kyuu exam. I've got enough friends to help me out so I think that will be my huge plan for the year.

Regardless, I think this is the year I'll get engaged, if not married. No, I don't have anyone right now. But I think I should make a real effort to get someone this year. Probably improving my Japanese will help in this, since my past killer has been my lack of language skills in elegantly presenting myself and talking about anything that doesn't involve fart, dick and gay jokes (just kidding but at least the fart and dating jokes were kinda bland). My Japanese needs to match my English level for me to feel comfortable here. I think if that occurs, people might realize that I'm not just a foul mouthed person, but someone with depth.

Between April through May, I plan to fix up the plumbing in my mom's home. I figure that's a $5k project. If I can get that fixed, repair the sidedoors, ceiling, back door, replace the tiling in the family room, replace the toilet near my room and replace all three sinks, the house will be in excellent condition for another 20 years.

By August, I will reassess my financial situation and see if the time is right to make my first real estate purchase. With the subprime loan crisis hitting, home sales slowing, and the government intervening by lowering the lending rates, it seems like a sure shot to at least take a serious glance at some real estate on the market. I still think that Las Vegas is the place to target. I've already spotted some cheap condos at least online. The next plan would be to physically check them out and see if their location is ideal as a long term investment vehicle. My guess is that real estate will continue to go down, but at the very least, I want to make sure homes are affordable.

Project and business-wise, this will be an exciting year for me. I saw my company's roadmap and it's ambitious. Also, I know of various internal projects that I'm just waiting to sink my teeth into. If I can balance that with my home life, it should be a very profitable year in terms of knowledge.

From a global perspective, this coming year is going to be a mixed bag. I think with the Pakistani leader recently assassinated, we'll see various forms of retribution along with heat from many countries, especially the US. I don't know if this will move the US into action (or as I say, give the US an excuse to start something), but it's too hard to say how far this will escalate.

Once we're into the 1st quarter, it'll be interesting to see how holiday sales have performed. It's been noted that consumer confidence is down, especially from rumblings of the looming recession. I always figure that Christmas is the best indicator of yearly consumer confidence, as people tend to put more on credit. If Christmas sales are down, the next recession might last 2-3 years (about the same as the last one). Right now, it seems the current target is against the credit market, so many finance companies will feel more blows coming their way. But seriously, if they didn't have all these fraudulent schemes to blackmail consumers into getting into more debt, then these companies might have stronger businesses, rather than periodic booms. Overall, I think the financial market will be hit hard throughout the year from people who are unable to pay. This will play a huge part into a lowering stock market (great time to buy!!!!), lowering interest rates, deflation and the USD moving even lower.

With the writers' strikes continuing, I think consumers will continue to move towards online forms of entertainment. It's inevitable. The tools for creating and distributing one's own media has become easy. Not to mention free or cheap (e.g. web cameras). The main thing Hollywood and these various recording mafias hold that the average people do not possess have traditional been the means of production. It's completely Marxist yet dead on the mark. They had labs to produce unbelievable CGI effects and could distribute and market them globally. Youtube and other online companies threaten that aspect. What Hollywood studios do not realize is that the threat of piracy is NOT their biggest enemy. Their biggest enemy is losing control over distribution. Perhaps the layman may not produce the best effects, but considering how abused these CGI houses are and producing awful pictures that emphasize form over content, why bother?

And take reality TV. It's a dead issue. Who wants to see hasbeen actors, models, and overdosed rockstars show what decrepit, decadent beings that they've wasted their money on becoming? Anyone can produce a far more interesting reality show without any budget or the necessity of paying a hasbeen an undeserved paycheck. The thing is that we don't need theatres, and video rentals anymore. And that's where the power of online media will free the average citizen while certifying the demise of the big media industry as we know it.

This year (while this may not be a prediction) what needs to occur is a serious movie produced by an independent film crew that becomes a huge success on the internet. That will demonstrate the real threat of what the internet is to the movie studios.

Politically, I think this year will be hot because of the election. The question will be difficult to answer because the candidates (at least from the Democrats' side) are quite strong in comparison. I don't feel there's a single Republican that can easily represent the voice of America this time around. So what it'll boil down to is either Obama or Clinton getting the duke. I think Obama will probably win this one. I don't think America is ready for a female president yet and personally, I don't feel Clinton would make a good over ambassador. Being Bill's wife I think actually stigmitizes her rather than elevates her position. People are looking for something fresh and someone that's going to help the country recover in the various embarrassments and pitfalls Bush and his goons got the country into for the past 8 years. The first four years will be amending the damage done to the country while the following four will be paving the future. I don't think Clinton has that kind of vision. Obama just feels to be slightly more clued into the people. And that's the real issue that needs to be addressed.

2008 the internet will get hotter in terms of competition. The services will massively improve as understanding of richweb applications improve. But it'll be the online advertisement sector that'll lead this charge. While big media will slowly get nailed in their inability to cope with online media, it's obvious that they still want to get a piece of the action. But I think that their percentage will be tiny and that it'll hurt their revenue overall, leading them to lose further ground while the Big Three (Google, Yahoo, Apple) suck in massive deals. In general, be in a web company for 2008. It's going to great!

NASA/JPL will continue to have a rough year. I think that NASA will avoid disaster, but their chief enemy will be budget cuts from the Bush administration. Science just doesn't seem like a priority for the Bush administration. So they'll have to be patient until 2009 when the switch occurs.

While space will suffer from bureaucratic entanglements, green technologies will see new heights. Oil prices will shrink, leading more scares by the general public into moving towards hybrids. As such Japanese manufacturers will see great gains as their entire lineups move towards hybrid technologies. Where does that leave American automobiles? Hopefully, these companies get a huge slap in the face and stop being lazy in denying the impossibility of achieving better fuel standards. Rather than emphasizing size, American automanufacturers should look at the current situation as a prime point to reinvest money into research and switch gears completely towards fuel economy and price. If the Japanese are putting out 55/60 mph for one gallon at $28000, US manufacturers should aim at 60-80 mph/gallon at $20000. While the law recently was passed to force manufacturers to commit to higher standards, the manufacturers themselves should take initative to achieve even better matrics for themselves.]]> Sat, 29 Dec 2007 03:02:09 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2007/12/29/91e4caff6725864a718b5f632ef6b5f0.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/2/6e2091393f15b8454dc35f95637ba0b8.html I like Google and admire what they do. But whenever I look at them, I always see something missing that scares me. Web 2.0 has been mostly an eco system supported via Google's advertisements. I explained before how Google handles their success (at least I think I did). But to me it's a real frail environment and once someone figures out how to pull the plug from Google, many companies will fall hard.

Of course, there's a lot of things plugged into Google. They figured out how to be needed. So in another way, they won't be gone so quickly. They are kinda like a new OS forming through their APIs. And with things like OpenSocial and Android, it's clear that they want to be more like a crack dealer in getting people addicted to their drug of OSS.

But that's the ting to me. They try to not only be the crack dealer, but the alcohol shop, the vending machine for tobacco and the old Everclear song "Everything to Everyone." If Ads is their biggest single point of failure, their other Achilles' Heel would be spreading themselves too thin. I like what they've done for things like office applications and their charity arm. But in the end, how do these things fit Google? When you go up to someone in Google and attempt to have them answer, "What is Google's purpose as a business?" I don't think anyone could provide a clear answer. They used to be search. But what has creating a spreadsheet or powerpoint slide have to do with search?

Then you have them entering the mobile market in many ways like getting into the 700Mhz bid and their Android platform. I understand the marketing plausibility of it, but again what has that to do with search?

So I see a paradox going on, or maybe even an oxymoron: being everything to everyone or having no sense of identity whatsoever. I remember reading about how Larry Page grew angry at Google employees for not spending enough time on search. Is that because Google is supposed to be search?

Honestly, for myself, I don't care whether or not Google as a business model is supposed to be search. I just want them to answer it for themselves. They need to, in 2008, finally declare who and what Google is. They cannot make the claim, "They are not Evil" because Evil is too subjective of a word. And it simply is not a business model since business models are about making money through products and services. Once they've answered this question, I hope that they can focus their efforts on whatever model they pick.]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:28:40 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/2/6e2091393f15b8454dc35f95637ba0b8.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/2/2a85ded9a6471b256aef75886510d7f8.html You can't talk about Google without talking about Yahoo in some way. I think MSN should be made irrelevant as it is truly a 3rd rate copy of copies. But the big question should be how these two behemoths focus their energies for this year?

While Google looks mobile bound, Yahoo might be moving towards social. I really hate looking at these two companies in these terms because I think these terms are passe. I think there is another picture to look at, something bigger than just mobile and social (while these two are big, to me, it's just marketing's current buzz).

I think Google needs to become something like the engine of the internet. I guess you could call it the Web OS. It will form the basis of all internet related aspects. APIs, links to websites, data relation, etc. In other words, Google will become more of the foundation for how the internet runs. You have all of their open APIs like Base, Maps, Ads, Android, even OpenSocial to a degree.

Yahoo should focus on becoming The content provider/creator. If I were to refocus Yahoo, it would be to first get rid of all the useless things that it bought or things that doesn't do it any real good. For instance, I'd kill Yahoo's search. Just let Google power it. I don't see any difference anyway (which is a huge problem in my book).

Next I'd kill Yahoo's notion of it being a portal. A portal for what? What a stupid term that got a lot of companies in trouble for forcing people to try to do everything, but doing everything in a sloppy, disorganized, unfocused, and low quality manner. Yahoo shouldn't even have a "front" page anymore. They should get people to move towards "My Yahoo" or something more useful. Help people build their own page. I'm not talking about another shitty "let's share my stupid page with my friends" type of deal. I'm talking about going through their troves of content and letting users filter out all of their crap which makes their front page so confusing.

Yahoo should then focus on purely content APIs. News, weather, movies, music, TV, etc. Content, content, content, content. Let Yahoo be this middle man of content, a content distributor and even creator. Google will then find ways of mining it. It's a nice symbiotic relationship that they could build.

Also, Yahoo should be a front end service. If Yahoo is to be a content provider/creator, it must also figure out how to make such services presentable. In other words, make them look nice, make it easy for people to create more services, make it easy to access and figure out what's available for them. If you go to Yahoo's homepage, you'll see a bunch of junk floating around. You got some news items, a ton of confusing ads, this horrible sidebar in which my eye hardly glances, and a TINY search bar. Oh not to mention that stupid appearing menu for my email that enlarges and shrinks the page in annoying ways. What the hell is this? Yahoo is trying to push a ton of garbage onto me without figuring out what I want at first. It's almost like going to a generic buffet in Vegas. Going along the analogy of buffets, Google is more like the Wynn buffet, where you have smaller quantities of food, but the stuff is done well. On the other hand, Yahoo would be the Main Street of buffets, where you get tons of choices, but the preparation is done in a mediocre manner.

If I were re-designing Yahoo's pages, I would start with a blank page and just ask questions about what a user wants and slowly build up a page with all the content available for them. I suggest anyone with some authority at Yahoo to read my rant about Linux on the desktop. Yahoo needs a similar strategy. While Yahoo has the marketshare due to their long reign, I can easily imagine them losing it or at least pieces of it slowly to competitors who simply have more focused capabilities and better marketing.

Along those lines I'd also make Yahoo a single point of sign on for the internet. There should be some trusted crossover between Google and Yahoo to allow people to reutilize their email addresses as the same login between platforms. If that happens, then they should also get rid of the stupid page that forces people to re-login everytime and put everything into some framed version so that people don't have to go between various pages and have all their main applications and links centralized from a logical point.

Finally, Yahoo needs to return partly to their roots on what made them successful: a directory. While Yahoo as a pure directory is impossible because of the sheer number of services out there, Yahoo needs to re-invent itself in terms of marketing its applications in the form of a directory structure. Or something that bears resemblance to a directory to make sense of the hundreds of things within Yahoo. Having that sad little strip on the left side just doesn't cut it and I'm certain more services could potentially see the light of day if people weren't obstinate and realized how horrible of a front page that they have.

Google and mobile/wireless are combos people are going to start murmuring about since, well, it's Google trying to get in. While it'll be interesting to see their plans if they can get the bid, I'm more afraid of them failing in getting it. Probably if they make the bid, they'll open it up for everyone. I don't think that would be a great business decision. The infrastructure cost in that would be insane. But let's say that they don't get the duke. My alternative plan is for them to buyout AOL, kill dialup, improve LAN connectivity through installing fiber in major cities and lowering rates and selling that. Personally, I'd love to see that happen more than Google getting the wireless bid. I mean, it just makes more sense from a business perspective. The customers are already known, all you're doing is just upgrading lines, you destroy that evil faction of sales that AOL has, you get rid of the old dialups, move everyone to IPv6 so everyone will have a static IP and you can give the cable monopoly a real run for their money (i'm not sure if Time Warner still has a part in AOL, probably do so that'll make this deal even sweeter). Not to mention you'll make M$ shit in their pants because you end up controlling the other side of infrastructure.n The other major thing is that Google will finally have a new form of business to earn continuous revenue from. It will be a natural fit and a good way for the internet to finally evolve.

Yahoo should NOT make a purchase or investment in Facebook. I just think the whole SNS is passe. Yahoo should focus on improving what they have rather than continuously broaden themselves out. Let some other company like M$ make the mistake of investing in a piece of junk like Facebook. Have you seen Myspace recently? It still sucks even with the interface change! People just migrated over to Facebook! So is Murdoch's $650 million still worth it?

Both of these companies need to realize what they have and make better utilization of their resources. I think Google has a lot of momentum and brilliance while Yahoo has the legacy. But both simply lack focus to improve on what they have.

Anyway, if anyone wants to hire me as a strategist for either company, go to my profile page here and contact me through my linkedin account or facebook account.]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2008 02:22:15 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/2/2a85ded9a6471b256aef75886510d7f8.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/2/66ca7b3e12a9d6378fae1170483e1e6d.html Since I'm working on these 2008 strategies, I decided to give some advice to Microsoft: kill MSN. Or rather stop putting anymore money into it. Stop trying to compete against Yahoo and Google. Vista was a huge flop and everyone knew it. DRM, locked down devices, closed, proprietary systems are just so 1980's-2000. You had your 20 year run, it was great, we had fun, people made money, now it's time to move on.

First Microsoft needs to get rid of Ballmer. There I said it. He's not a geek, never will be, and I don't think anyone in the industry really respects him (much less likes him).

Microsoft should not put more money into Facebook. It's just a bad buy. Yeah, there's some nice things in there like games, but it's just integration. You just can do a little bit more than say Myspace. Sure, they have open APIs, but I just don't see a point still. I think SNS are great but I don't think anyone will be the be-all-end-all solution that these major companies are looking for. They're limited in what they can do and the only thing that they have is the occasional returning user. Great. Move on. For that matter, Microsoft should not get into the SNS space. It just doesn't fit who they are.

I mentioned this before, but I'll mention it again for their sake: Microsoft needs to go more into scientific computing. It blends with Bill Gates' philanthropic beliefs/causes. Google has moved into Green technologies, but Microsoft doesn't need to. Instead, I think a better area would be to focus on areas like medicine, genetics, nanotechnology, space exploration and robotics. Probably robotics is Microsoft's best bet and I would start shifting more budget into areas like automation. Think about things like centralized control of home appliances through one's computer. We have notions of services like networks, telnet, ftp, who, etc. but these are primitive compared to the potential number of services out there. Why build something 5th rate like Zune when there's probably a lot more practicality in things like timed heating, programmable meals, house cleaning, taking out one's garbage, cleaning the dishes, etc.? My stupid microwave is in Japanese, but the functions are identical to one sold in the US. Why should I be put into a situation where my limitation is the localized language? Imagine if it were controlled through my computer! You pick up your microwave dinner at the store, the microwave reads the barcode which translates into instructions on your computer. All you have to do is tell the computer when you want to eat.

Or how about a better vacuum? Have you ever seen those crappy ones with wheels? They're small and supposedly can go under your sofa. But what abouts the corners or ceiling where tons of mold can grow? I don't need another mp3 player, I need a better friggin' vacuum! And of course, this is simply AI and robotics. The funniest part is that this thing is such a common problem why hasn't someone tried to tackle it in an elegant way? The stuff I see is novel. I don't want novel, I want elegant and efficient. I see this situation as being more useful than a stupid XBox. If my clothes were cleaned, my bed made, my garbage taken out, my food made, my floors cleaned, my walls washed, my toilet scrubbed, then I could focus on more important things in my life (or rather that my place would be more hospital and I'd have more friends come over). I honestly don't care who solves this problem, but I think Microsoft has certainly the funds and people to make this thing work.

]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2008 02:47:09 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/2/66ca7b3e12a9d6378fae1170483e1e6d.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/5/58ac9e47c869763753cce1ec6cae7740.html

• Microsoft focusing on Webtop applications. No, as I mentioned Microsoft should shift their strategy completely away from the online area and let Yahoo, Google and other smaller ventures take over that space. The better area should be in appliances, robotics, space, and medicine. Those are more difficult business opportunities with far more money collectively involved and bigger prizes at the end of the tunnel. Microsoft would do themselves and the world a huge favor by not competing in the online space, and focusing on those other areas, which I doubt these web companies will bother with.
• Apple opening up the iPhone. Truthfully, Apple's killer is that they have a bad history of keeping their resources closed. Eventually, having too much proprietary stuff just hurt them in the end and it might do the same thing here. So I do agree with this point. But in general, I think Apple should not just focus on that area but also on other aspects of lifestyle outside of music like appliances. Music is a nice-to-have, not a need. Apple should work on things like intelligent microwaves along with Sony to improve these aspects of integrating computer functionality with the rest of the home.
  
• Facebook's data retention. Yeah, I do agree that they should open up their data. But I believe this should be the case of all major social networks. The bigger picture for Facebook is the fact that they're quickly becoming a platform, not just a service for social networks. Their APIs should be expanded upon to increase the number and granularity of services while developers can focus on creating the polish. That would save Facebook the issue of doing any work outside of regular maintenance.
  And make sure that the CEO's young ego is in check. This isn't about pride. It's about making things work in a transparent manner.
• Yahoo using their traffic. I think the traffic really doesn't matter at this point for Yahoo. I think it's manipulating the traffic to employ their services in a more efficient manner. Again this is the whole problem of enforcing people to use their "My Yahoo" piece as opposed to having this ugly front site that is a clusterfuck to look at.
• ebay selling off Skype. Well, ebay's big problem is that like other big internet companies, they still want to be everything to everyone. Instead of selling off skype (because it's really a great service), ebay should consider creating a holdings company that manages the various services. Just look at what IAC did. This would work out well because the holdings company could manage all the subbrands from ebay and ebay would focus on auctions and internet shopping. The problem was that Skype along with some other websites like Stumbleupon, truthfully had no business being in a business portfolio (no pun intended) in an online auction site. I don't think ebay acquiring other potentially decent companies is a horrible idea; but I think not aligning these companies up with their core business model is a huge problem for investors.
  

]]> Sat, 05 Jan 2008 11:07:26 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/5/58ac9e47c869763753cce1ec6cae7740.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/18/bf99900ad345f5c9da6bdfaefc163b06.html
It doesn't look good boys and girls.

One thing I learned though is that fortunately markets are highly cyclical. After weathering the storm from the dot com fall, I realized that if you manage to persist, you probably just need to lay low for about 2-3 years. That's how long the dot com fall out took. But some good came out of that (Google, Skype, the numerous buyouts) and the fact that technology got confidence back likewise instilled confidence back into me about the industry.

The housing market has trickled into the finance market in profound ways. But then again the financial market has always been a sleazy one; anytime you involve money, the sin of greed pops up and people are more willing to sell their souls than benefit mankind. That said, despite having all the excess housing, it'll be very good for people looking to break into the US housing market within the next 3 years. The Federal Bank has intervened in cutting the lending rate and probably will continue to do so while the US economy falls. That implies that interest rates will eventually feel the effects, especially as less loans are taken out. For the individual it means that those who weren't able to get into the housing market at the right moment will have a new chance to sneak in. At that time though, the US government will probably do some watchdog service to ensure that financial institutions will have some checks and balances to prevent customers who aren't able to handle such payments. In short, a lot of potential good but only in the future.

Unfortunately though, it's still going to be rough for people. The climbing gas prices haven't come to a screeching halt yet. And the country is excessively spending for wars. That does little good for the little people stuck in the middle of all this. As a result, much of the political Presidential campaigns have turned towards the economy and what each contender will do.

So far, I haven't been that impressed with most people, except Obama. I think he's more clued into what the average person might feel, so hopefully he'll really help provide tax relief to low to medium income families. Bush's own plan for handling the situation wasn't impressive at all. The stock market wasn't receptive at all with his plans, dropping after feeling disappointment. Then again, I feel that when Bush took power, most people were disappointed in the choice and sold off since people realized that he added no value to the domestic economy. And truthfully outside of military spending, Bush has improved zero things domestically (doing just the opposite).

While the stock market will mostly be driven this year by the fallout from the housing bubble, the thing on everyone's minds that will drive the US economy for the next 4-8 years will be the next presidential candidate. I think that America's investors will go into hibernation this year and wait to see the impending election. The economy potentially can recover quicker if the next president is domestic friendly. In that case, I think that Obama or Edwards would make good choices in this regard. I'm too wary of Clinton and her recently pathos plea; it was unprofessional conduct on her part and hopefully people are smart enough to see beyond the tears to realize that you still need a platform and strength as a world leader. Crying will make you seem weak (the only positive thing I can say about Bush is that people fear him. Not because he's intelligent, a strong character, etc., but because he's an idiot that believes in his own hype and has enough power to back himself up).

Either way, I think a lot of people will lay low this year. But in terms of jobs, engineering is still doing quite well.
]]> Fri, 18 Jan 2008 21:30:16 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/18/bf99900ad345f5c9da6bdfaefc163b06.html http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/23/0b1a0996c4bf87fb4a9ddc0b83c16853.html
I talked to my mom this past weekend and found out that she barely follows the campaigns. I can't blame her because it's become nothing more than wrestling promo, without the 5* match! What's worse is that the campaigns presented within the parties have descending into this, especially the Democrats. To me this is utterly sad and since the world is watching, I get the feeling that many people feel uneasy about any contenders at this moment.

For Clinton, it's a real disappointment to see her take the low route. Her husband did an excellent job during his election against Bush back in '92. A lot of what Clinton did that was so positive was that he practically ignored Bush whenever Bush attempted to assassinate Clinton's character. Clinton, whether or not he was truthful, would attempt to convey his plans. As a president, that's basically what you need to do. In Hillary's case, she broke down and cried (from what I read) to grab one state.

Hillary, I support the notion of having a female for a president one day, but at this moment, I cannot respect nor believe in a leader who utilizes pathos to gain votes. One, it makes you look weak as a leader to the world. And more importantly it makes you an obvious liar. It's already known that as a politician you're a liar by nature. But you don't have to be an obvious one. It simply insults the public's intelligence and tells me that you're willing to resort to desperate tactics in order to gain victory.

As for Obama, I have no problem supporting him. I feel he's going to be the better candidate in the end. But I think it's completely disrespectful to have someone degenerate these debates into something like the start of a schoolyard fight. The US needs someone better from a moral point of view than that. The country knocked out the Republican party because people grew easily sick of the underhanded tactics that the Democrats had portrayed for many of these people. Don't you think that the country deserves a little respect by focusing exclusively on repairing itself, especially with the upcoming recession?

To both candidates: America and the world need to at least hear concrete plans on how you intend to bring the nation back. The world fears and despises America because of the true terrorist of Bush and what he's done to engender a highly aggressive and prejudice image of America that essentially took the country back to the McCarthy era. We are in the year 2008 and we have learn to grow beyond simple ignorance and prejudice as a global society. Or have we?]]> Wed, 23 Jan 2008 16:58:53 -0700 http://www.keithwatanabe.net/blogs/2008/1/23/0b1a0996c4bf87fb4a9ddc0b83c16853.html