There was a link from Slashdot two days ago to an article about a former NASA engineer's thoughts on a manned trip to Mars. The critical point was considering a way one trip to Mars. Some of the subpoints in such a mission would be that only one person could do it. The logistics of going to Mars is pretty nasty. You have to worry about fuel, the energy necessary to lift off from the planet once it arrives, oxygen, supplies, etc. It's not even a case of Robinson Crusoe; you have virtually nothing and even worse: a nearly non-existent budget from the government. You're not even Christopher Columbus.
I found some of the points to be interesting. It seems that NASA is attempting to examine all combination of ways to get to Mars within their constraints. The way I look the mission is that it'd certainly be a one way mission. But I think that sending a single person would be folly. My reasoning is that you have the worst single point of failure and no matter what, it'd be suicide.
Sending multiple people to Mars is still suicidal and extremely high risk, but there's a balancing factor in the fact that multiple people can be more productive than a single person. I mean, what is the point of sending a single person to Mars in the first place? Is it just for novelty? Is it to say that NASA was capable of doing so and could learn from the experience?
I'd consider sending a single person a complete waste of potential. If the mission failed in any manner (e.g. the astronaut going awol or dying by some freak accident), then all the planning would go down the drain. Then the world would cry out about the impossibilities of going to space and the program would be set back another 10 years before people forget and realize that there was a reason for sending some suicidal scientists out there.
Having multiple people would reduce part of that risk. Certainly, the death rate is higher, but if you send a combination of men and women, there's always a chance for setting up a new colony and establishing some foundation while the next trips are being planned.
It's interesting to note that the NASA engineer mentioned about the risk involved and how it's actually irrelevant in the whole matter. And it's true because people are naturally daredevils. Usually, it's the media or some stupid religious groups that conflate the issue and create public outcries against such programs without realizing that there's a clear purpose and that the people who took the risk more than likely understood the consequences.
That all said, I still have to agree with the initial premise that the first trip to Mars is one way. That's my gut feeling. Mostly, my belief for this goes from the premise that the biggest factor in getting to Mars is the fuel. Next the supplies. I'd make sure to start planning how to create some sort of return vehicle, but I'd imagine that the return vehicle would require about 3-5 years of planning before it manifests.
I think one (sci-fi) type of plan might be to send a crew of say 10 people, split by men and women for a guaranteed period of 3-5 years. The crew's purpose would be to start laying the foundation for future colonies. So you'd naturally need to establish more than just science labs, which probably is all that NASA thinks about in these things.
As they say in survival class, you need to establish basic necessities immediately. O2, food, water, and shelter. The first three are the hardest since there are none at Mars. I'd imagine you'd have to send regular cycles of supplies to the colony. Say every 3-6 months. Those supply trains would come from unmanned landers, maybe even parachutes. Fortunately, those three elements can be easily packaged and more than likely would not have delicate instruments. So the packaging would not have to be sophisticated compared to, say, a rover.
While the process for creating a supply train is being optimized, you'd need to establish how to recreate those necessities. Since it's established that Mars has polar caps, one would think naturally that you'd want to utilize those resources and convert them into some form of O2 and distilled water. However, I'm pretty certain that establishing a colony near those locations would be close to impossible initially due to the extreme cold. So I'd mark that as a project for the distant future when the colony would have enough supplies to create factories and processes for the conversion and to be able to import those elements back to the main colony.
Because of the difficulty in such a process (despite the necessity), I would focus on other necessities that are easier to handle (well relatively speaking). Namely energy for the base. Energy is critical for internal heating, communications back to Earth, etc. So that might be easier to establish quickly for the colony's future growth. You can't depend on nearly all of Earth's traditional energy creation methods like wind, oil, coal, nuclear or hydropower. So the only known resource for power would be solar. And you'd need a lot of panels. I foresee something like an energy farm of solar panels for something like this.
From there I think it'd be very critical to explore the place and look for potential sources of energy (outside of solar) and O2/H20. More than likely though, it'd be very hard to find O2/H20 without hitting the poles. And who knows how long that could take to get there from the landing zone. However, finding something like nuclear energy would be a major step in engendering a means of getting back to Earth.
Of course, I'd have a natural tendency to figure out how to create other manufacturing plants, in taking Mars' resources and converting them into something useful like building parts, etc. But that would have a lesser priority until the basic foundation of the colony would be stabilized.
So that still leaves us with the whole problem about food. I know the ISS is conducting an experiment in the new Columbus lab in growing plants in outer space (really cool!). Obviously if that experiment succeeds and is able to produce healthy plants that can sustain humans, it'd be a natural step in allowing people to have agriculture outside of Earth. More than likely, such an idea ought to succeed. From there, the question becomes "What type of vegetables should be grown?" I think initially you could start off with four types: 1) Soy beans; 2) Rice; 3) Spinach; 4) Wheat. Maybe even add carrots and tomatoes for coloring. But soy would be my first pick as it's a naturally healthy and versatile product (soy milk, tofu, etc.) while rice and wheat would provide carbohydrates. I'd give this whole part to the Japanese since they seem naturally inclined for handling these types of processes (just look at their products!). My goal would be to create a greenhouse for these items. Hopefully, you could expand the capabilities of such a thing to eventually produce O2 in the long term.
Now that basic supplies are dealt with, the question then becomes what kind of things would you need for the base? I already covered the solar farm and potential green house. The long term goal would be to have a formal landing and launch pad. A landing pad wouldn't be as necessary except as a formality for tourists/colonists. But a launch pad obviously is the key to getting off that rock (not to mention the vehicle). Much of my effort for the colony would be to establish three main goals:
- Create a base that allows survival.
- Setup enough for future colonists and expansion.
- Quickly create something that will allow the return of people from Mars.
So after starting on the launch pad project, you still have to come up with other parts of the base. I mean, you need living quarters, a kitchen, restroom facilities, wash, and maybe even a little entertainment. When I think about the first ship that could land on Mars, I think big. It'd have to contain enough room for the supplies and modules for survival for a few years. Now the modules themselves don't have to be big. They can be extensible. I've seen some designs where tents or inflatable bases are established. Don't know if that's the way to go as a result of the lack of protection from the sun's radiation as well as against the various forces on Mars' atmosphere. Maybe something like thick, protective, inflatable cushions that contract for things like the living quarters, wash, etc. Then you'd have an emergency protection zone in case some major sandstorm would hit.
I think like the ISS, the initial station should be modular. So just like the supplies being sent from Earth, you'd have these pieces of new modules being shipped every 3-6 months from various countries as contributions to the colony. That way you can quickly hook up everything and create a kind of conduit-like system interconnecting the base between each other.
Personally, I think that once the science outpost gets established, you would need to quickly move people underground as colonies would get established. At this point, the manufacturing plants I mentioned before would come into play as you'd need to create numerous living quarters. I'd place people underground mostly for safety from the elements above. Not sure if the ground can protect people better from radiation and other cosmic or toxic elements, but you definitely wouldn't be as exposed in theory.
Anyway, I've gone on longer than I meant to. Part of it is that my wonderful novel that I've not had enough time to work on is pretty much what I'm talking about. But enjoy the sci-fi here being proposed!
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