Keith Watanabe * NET 2.0

2007 was the worst year in my life.  Hands down.  So does that imply things will get better for 2008?  The Chinese new year calendar has it that it will be the year of the Rat.  I'm a rabbit so I'm not sure what this implies.  I do know that Monkey was one of the worst ones while obviously last year wasn't so good.

I'll be 33 this year and things didn't exactly go as planned this year.  I was planning to make $2 million and that obviously did not come to fruition.  So do I make this year an exception in that perhaps I was off by a year (since I'm always off by one) or do I go a different route?  Right now, I'm still debating.  For myself, I have three things that I'm juggling:

   1. Build my own application in the hopes of someone buying it out
   2. Focusing the entire year on getting my Japanese level up
   3. Improving on my writing

1) is something that is always too hard to put a bet on.  I've built several applications already but no one uses them.  I can't tell if it's simply because of bad UI, not enough time to support them or my lack of leadership skills in enticing more people to come and use them.  Either way, I'm not sure if I should waste anymore time on this.  Since I'm in a much better environment, I have no excuse NOT to train my Japanese.  It looks like a sure bet to go this route.  Besides, why even be in Japan when I can barely speak (well, "barely speak" meaning that I'm not handling the language as fluently as I'd like).

I want to handle my writing too.  But I'm the type of person that needs focus.  So I have to split my time between either the Japanese or the writing, but I'm coming to realize that it's not easy doing this.  So right now, it looks like I might focus all my energy on my Japanese once work starts again.  I've been promising myself for a long time that I want to pass the 2-kyuu exam.  I've got enough friends to help me out so I think that will be my huge plan for the year.

Regardless, I think this is the year I'll get engaged, if not married.  No, I don't have anyone right now.  But I think I should make a real effort to get someone this year.  Probably improving my Japanese will help in this, since my past killer has been my lack of language skills in elegantly presenting myself and talking about anything that doesn't involve fart, dick and gay jokes (just kidding but at least the fart and dating jokes were kinda bland).  My Japanese needs to match my English level for me to feel comfortable here.  I think if that occurs, people might realize that I'm not just a foul mouthed person, but someone with depth.

Between April through May, I plan to fix up the plumbing in my mom's home.  I figure that's a $5k project.  If I can get that fixed, repair the sidedoors, ceiling, back door, replace the tiling in the family room, replace the toilet near my room and replace all three sinks, the house will be in excellent condition for another 20 years.

By August, I will reassess my financial situation and see if the time is right to make my first real estate purchase.  With the subprime loan crisis hitting, home sales slowing, and the government intervening by lowering the lending rates, it seems like a sure shot to at least take a serious glance at some real estate on the market.  I still think that Las Vegas is the place to target.  I've already spotted some cheap condos at least online.  The next plan would be to physically check them out and see if their location is ideal as a long term investment vehicle.  My guess is that real estate will continue to go down, but at the very least, I want to make sure homes are affordable.

Project and business-wise, this will be an exciting year for me.  I saw my company's roadmap and it's ambitious.  Also, I know of various internal projects that I'm just waiting to sink my teeth into.  If I can balance that with my home life, it should be a very profitable year in terms of knowledge.

From a global perspective, this coming year is going to be a mixed bag.  I think with the Pakistani leader recently assassinated, we'll see various forms of retribution along with heat from many countries, especially the US.  I don't know if this will move the US into action (or as I say, give the US an excuse to start something), but it's too hard to say how far this will escalate.

Once we're into the 1st quarter, it'll be interesting to see how holiday sales have performed.  It's been noted that consumer confidence is down, especially from rumblings of the looming recession.  I always figure that Christmas is the best indicator of yearly consumer confidence, as people tend to put more on credit.  If Christmas sales are down, the next recession might last 2-3 years (about the same as the last one).  Right now, it seems the current target is against the credit market, so many finance companies will feel more blows coming their way.  But seriously, if they didn't have all these fraudulent schemes to blackmail consumers into getting into more debt, then these companies might have stronger businesses, rather than periodic booms.  Overall, I think the financial market will be hit hard throughout the year from people who are unable to pay.  This will play a huge part into a lowering stock market (great time to buy!!!!), lowering interest rates, deflation and the USD moving even lower.

With the writers' strikes continuing, I think consumers will continue to move towards online forms of entertainment.  It's inevitable.  The tools for creating and distributing one's own media has become easy.  Not to mention free or cheap (e.g. web cameras).  The main thing Hollywood and these various recording mafias hold that the average people do not possess have traditional been the means of production.  It's completely Marxist yet dead on the mark.  They had labs to produce unbelievable CGI effects and could distribute and market them globally.  Youtube and other online companies threaten that aspect.  What Hollywood studios do not realize is that the threat of piracy is NOT their biggest enemy.  Their biggest enemy is losing control over distribution.  Perhaps the layman may not produce the best effects, but considering how abused these CGI houses are and producing awful pictures that emphasize form over content, why bother?

And take reality TV.  It's a dead issue.  Who wants to see hasbeen actors, models, and overdosed rockstars show what decrepit, decadent beings that they've wasted their money on becoming?  Anyone can produce a far more interesting reality show without any budget or the necessity of paying a hasbeen an undeserved paycheck.  The thing is that we don't need theatres, and video rentals anymore.  And that's where the power of online media will free the average citizen while certifying the demise of the big media industry as we know it.

This year (while this may not be a prediction) what needs to occur is a serious movie produced by an independent film crew that becomes a huge success on the internet.  That will demonstrate the real threat of what the internet is to the movie studios.

Politically, I think this year will be hot because of the election.  The question will be difficult to answer because the candidates (at least from the Democrats' side) are quite strong in comparison.  I don't feel there's a single Republican that can easily represent the voice of America this time around.  So what it'll boil down to is either Obama or Clinton getting the duke.  I think Obama will probably win this one.  I don't think America is ready for a female president yet and personally, I don't feel Clinton would make a good over ambassador.  Being Bill's wife I think actually stigmitizes her rather than elevates her position.  People are looking for something fresh and someone that's going to help the country recover in the various embarrassments and pitfalls Bush and his goons got the country into for the past 8 years. The first four years will be amending the damage done to the country while the following four will be paving the future.  I don't think Clinton has that kind of vision.  Obama just feels to be slightly more clued into the people.  And that's the real issue that needs to be addressed.

2008 the internet will get hotter in terms of competition.  The services will massively improve as understanding of richweb applications improve.  But it'll be the online advertisement sector that'll lead this charge.  While big media will slowly get nailed in their inability to cope with online media, it's obvious that they still want to get a piece of the action.  But I think that their percentage will be tiny and that it'll hurt their revenue overall, leading them to lose further ground while the Big Three (Google, Yahoo, Apple) suck in massive deals.  In general, be in a web company for 2008.  It's going to great!

NASA/JPL will continue to have a rough year.  I think that NASA will avoid disaster, but their chief enemy will be budget cuts from the Bush administration.  Science just doesn't seem like a priority for the Bush administration.  So they'll have to be patient until 2009 when the switch occurs.

While space will suffer from bureaucratic entanglements, green technologies will see new heights.  Oil prices will shrink, leading more scares by the general public into moving towards hybrids.  As such Japanese manufacturers will see great gains as their entire lineups move towards hybrid technologies.  Where does that leave American automobiles?  Hopefully, these companies get a huge slap in the face and stop being lazy in denying the impossibility of achieving better fuel standards.  Rather than emphasizing size, American automanufacturers should look at the current situation as a prime point to reinvest money into research and switch gears completely towards fuel economy and price.  If the Japanese are putting out 55/60 mph for one gallon at $28000, US manufacturers should aim at 60-80 mph/gallon at $20000.  While the law recently was passed to force manufacturers to commit to higher standards, the manufacturers themselves should take initative to achieve even better matrics for themselves.