Keith Watanabe * NET 2.0

Just read an article that shows a study of how the number of computer science students have been dropping in the states. It's interesting to note this as a professional because it implies several things. First, the competition is going to be a lot lower since less professionals are going to have degrees or the right experience for upcoming computer related jobs. Despite all the fears of outsourcing overseas, most companies with an IT related infrastructure will not be doing this in the near future. Only the wealthiest and largest have the capacities to outsource at this level. There's just too large of a risk in outsourcing overseas so I think small to middle sized companies will continue to hire locally. As part of that, with less competition on the market that also means that the level of demand will go down in terms of the qualifications that these companies seek. So rather than being nitpicky as the down years in the post-dotcom bubble, more IT related companies will be forced to undergo compromises in salaries and qualifications from their employees. But for someone like me that has a good 5 years of experience tucked under his belt, this might be a good thing since i'll fit in a certain demographic....not too inexperienced, not too old and outdated. The key to this will be to charge in and take control before the next wave of competitors can hit. With people just graduating and scrounging for work, they'll be at the lowest totem pole despite any degree they'd have simply because they have no real experience to demonstrate their skills. I think those that have 1-2 years will still be scraping if not having already given up for a "normal" day job. Quite possibly this could imply the return of the consulting company. As long as it's not a razorfish type of group, then I think this idea is quite viable as a decent business. People holding between 4-8 years of experience will do quite well in the next 3-5 years as the last of the tech jobs dry up and cement people's positions as key players. A friend of mine remarked how in the 60s-70s or so, the chemical plant industry might've been the same. You get these Chemical Engineering Majors graduating and eating up high paying contract jobs and later ceiling positions at companies like Fluor Daniels as mid to top level managers. After that era, people entering can be placed in a mediocre zone by comparison. IT in the dot com boom must be working the same way, with the early birds like Jerry Yang and company sealing the pinnacle. So I think I can at least hit the mid level and survive that way. The other thing in the article was that it mentioned how there's a certain fear from these universities of how less Phds, etc. are being handed out. The upper degree of Phd was probably the hardest issue for them. But the truth, imo, is that getting to that level requires extraordinary dedication. Only the creme should be in that group. From my viewpoint, it seemed that these people going after Phds were probably going for money. With the drop in salaries and job market, this probably heavily discourages this. However, what you have to remember is that these institutions are not really supposed to prepare people for the "real world." They're gearing people for higher education. That's probably why many students are/were having problems finding work when the dot com bust occurred. Most were more involved more in theory oriented situations rather than real world problem solving arenas. I've often heard complaints from Berkeley and Caltech students saying their schools didn't emphasize the software engineering and programming aspects enough. Instead, they were more bent on the "overall" picture, something most companies/businesses don't give a shit about. People who are interested in practical solutions are better off at a technical school like ITT, imo. One possible consequence out of all of this might be the lower of resistance in school cultures that build up in certain companies. I've noticed companies like Overture, etc. who seem to harvest Caltech and MIT types. The danger in that route is that you're essentially hiring like-minded people. That can be a timebomb for a company whose corporate culture is more business oriented. I can see a place for those types, but in business you gotta remember the bottom line. I've worked with those Caltech, Stanford theory types in the past. My thing is that they always wanted to handle things in the most academic way possible. As Chef from South Park had mentioned, "There's a time and place for everything.....and it's called College." No kidding. In that sense, more business minded programmers like myself might become in higher demand. I'm not saying this through my own optimism. But the truth is that with less academic people on the market and less qualified people overall, there needs to be people who understand the technical aspects and the business demands and can merge the two together. This is where the real money will be made.