There’s some very interesting commentary videos on conspiracy theories within the Game of Thrones/Story of Ice and Fire realm such as the Martell grand plot, Mance Rayder’s scheming, etc. Considering that the series is based around various families and individuals trying to outdo each other for power, none of these conspiracy theories should be considered that far fetched. But what is the end goal or point of all this?
I think one of the main themes in the story is to examine the idea of power and how it operates on a theoretical level. In many ways, Game of Thrones, as the title implies, is the interpretation of game theory as it relates to power. George RR Martin essentially is asking different scenarios of how people gain and maintain power with various methodologies. You can look at this world by using the lens of the old AD&D alignment system in part. For instance, Ned Stark can be considered a lawful good person while Ramsay Snow is defined as a chaotic evil individual.
Given this lens, how can we look at the different families and people who try to rule and what are the outcomes as presented by George RR Martin in this story? Let’s start with Ned Stark as the traditional lawful good paladin/cavalier/knight archetype. While people might consider him an honorable and possibly just man, how effective is his execution? Not at all considering that very quickly he is the one executed because he refuses to play politics. If he could bend slightly, one could argue he could have easily made peace with Cersei in retaining the secrecy for her children’s identity and helped foster Joffrey as a wiser king.
From there, we can look at Joffrey, who, like Ramsay Snow, can be defined as a chaotic evil type. Cersei herself labels Joffrey as unpredictable and wild. He is whimsical and absolute and rules through a system of fear and lack of mercy. However, he lacks proper sense and practically is a flimsy puppet king that his mother’s side of the family tries to establish in order to rule the realm. The net effect is that without the proper education and nurturing, his reign is seen as tyrannical with various parties either desiring to manipulate him (as in the Tyrells with Margaery or his own family) or trying to destroy him (with regards to the Starks).
Before Joffrey and Ned, we need to talk about Robert Baratheon who was serving as the king when the series starts. Robert is mostly a successful military commander who wanted to rule as opposed to Ned Stark. Robert understands the basis of the Game of Thrones and plays just enough through a combination of fear and delegation. However, his primary weakness is that his original concept of ruling differs from the reality of ruling that he has learned over the years. Rather than embracing and evolving his understanding of ruling, he side steps it through delegating all matters to the Small Council and decides to use his remaining time in the world through a decadent lifestyle. While he is able to prosper for himself, he is completely incapable of serving the realm nor the people he loves due to his utter apathy for ruling.
When events are set in motion as Cersei (using Joffrey) attempts to assert her dominance over the throne, Renly Baratheon is the first to suggest to Ned Stark the need to remove Joffrey. When Ned fails to heed Renly’s warning, Renly leaves the capital and manages to quickly raise an army to challenge for the Iron Throne. While Renly believes that he has qualities that would make him a deeply loved leader, he faces one major obstacle in the form of his older brother Stannis, who, by birthright/age, has a better claim than Renly. Yet Renly’s other major flaw is his unwillingness to put aside his differences with Stannis to unite and defeat the powerful Lannisters. His hubris and lack of practical leadership prove to be his downfall when he eventually gets assassinated by the shadow monster that comes from Melisandre. So even as charismatic as Renly was, he failed in winning over his own brother’s heart by remaining steadfast in his self-reverie rather than seeing the total picture.
Before getting into Stannis (which would be a nice transition), we absolutely need to delve into Robb Stark. The novel doesn’t delve as deeply into Robb’s character compared to the TV show, but the TV show essentially has Robb pick up where Ned stopped. The main difference is that Robb’s role was to restore his family once his father was imprisoned and rescue his sisters. Robb becomes a great battle commander and manages to unite the North under his cause. In some ways, Robb’s situation reminds me of a younger Robert Baratheon, except that Robb’s character differs vastly from Robert in his end goal. Here, Robb arises as a leader out of necessity and generates a cause that unites the North. However, being young he lacks the political sense to retain the North together as we see him beheading the Karstark and losing them and failing to sense the trap with the Freys and the Boltons.
Going back to the Baratheons, we now will delve into Stannis as a leader. Stannis, in the AD&D world, most likely would be considered a lawful neutral type. He lives through a very strict code, believes in cold justice, does have a sense of honor but no sense of compassion. He does not truly want to rule but believes in entitlement because of his strict interpretation of laws. In many ways, he is very similar to Ned Stark as both are soldiers with a common sense of honor and justice. The main difference is that Ned understood humanity but would try to shy away from sensitive situations if he could whereas Stannis would cast judgment immediately in his own fair sense. Thus far, while both Melisandre and Davos are staunch supporters (for their own reasons) of Stannis, Stannis himself has had few true victories with the Battle of Blackwater being his biggest defeat. If anything though that differs him and Ned in a positive manner, it’s that Stannis seems more willing to listen and possibly learn from others. We can see this through using Davos’ advice and his connection with Jon Snow
Let’s move on back to the Lannisters by focusing on Tywin himself. One can argue that with Joffrey and, to a degree, Tommen sitting on the Iron Throne, the true political ruling force in the realm is Tywin. Tywin is a classic example of the lawful evil alignment; while power hungry, manipulative and tyrannical, Tywin does believe in order so long as the means support the ends to his family’s name. In many ways, Tywin reminds me of the typical GOP politician, one with very conservative views of life with everyone having a strict place in the scheme of things. And I would consider him “evil” in a classic sense as well rather than simply lawful neutral like Stannis. For instance, he has no qualms about killing such as having a hand in the Red Wedding, revealing to Tyrion that murdering a few implies saving thousands of lives. Plato might call this situation the “lesser of two evils.” In the end though, his scheming and mannerisms make him hated and his behind-the-scenes ruling comes to an end with the bolt from Tyrion.
What about Cersei? If Tywin is one of the true puppet masters, what does that make Cersei? Cersei’s actual leadership is very shallow and petty at best. We get a true view of how Cersei sees herself when she is introduced as a view point character in A Feast for Crows. I guess one way to describe her would be your typical homecoming/prom queen who always was popular due to her physical beauty; but the moment you give her a microphone to make a speech for graduation, you know she’s going to screw up. One of the key ideas that people repeat in describing Cersei is her lack of self-awareness. Simply put, she doesn’t smell her own shit stink (which is funny considering the scene in the book where she kicks over her piss bucket and her urine spills in her jail cell). That along with being spoiled and having a sense of entitlement make her someone who is hated. The only people who have any sense of love/devotion to her are her children, Jaime and those she can sleep with. But even those people she sleeps with have their limits as we see her cousin Lancel turn on her in the end. In short, beauty, money and raw power (“Power is power”) are not the only things that are needed (or even wanted perhaps) to keep one’s subjects in line.
One other major thing to note about Cersei is how during her small reign with Tommen on the throne, Cersei had surrounded herself with numerous yes-men (and women). I think this is a crucial commentary to demonstrate that having ineffectual advisers that nod their head to further their own political elevation does little for the ruler themselves. Ironically, during a speech that Tywin gives Tommen in the TV show, Tywin mentions that the wisest rulers not only surround themselves and listen to their advisers, but continue to do so during their reign. This might be a huge hint at how Cersei will eventually fail and end up unwittingly corrupt Tommen in the process.
Moving on with the Lannisters, let’s go into Tyrion. As one of the most popular characters in both the books and the TV series, Tyrion is a huge favorite for many to be on the Iron Throne. But what can we say about him as a leader in the way George RR Martin describes him? We do him become successful throughout the series, using his cunning to forge unlikely alliances such as the hill tribes, to leading a victory at the Battle of Blackwater as well as his ability and willingness to play the Game of Thrones. He has great wit, is well read and can manipulate his way through many situations.
Yet he does have a few weaknesses namely his love for wine, whoring and his dwarfism. While Tyrion does manage to accommodate for his dwarfism from a psychological point of view, it does provide him other issues such as his ability to defend himself, a general lack of respect from others and, of course, his father’s outward ire. Because of that attribute, he is denied his entitlement to rule Casterly Rock and has difficulty being taken seriously (until he can prove himself). While wine has yet to show up as an inhibitor, his issue with whoring definitely has come up and reminds me of how politicians often time are setup with prostitutes to besmirch their reputation (in this case, sealing his fate during his trial).
Let’s move away from the Lannisters and go back to the Starks and the North. I think one person to talk about is Catelyn as she becomes the soul of the Stark household once Ned is decapitated. Although Catelyn does not rule directly, she becomes a foil to Cersei in some ways in how she tries to mentor/guide her son during his reign as the King of the North as well as making a few key decisions that helped lead to their downfall. Like the others of the Stark household, Catelyn is a very respectable, honorable and noble person in the story. While Ned’s decision making process is derived from his instincts as a trained soldier, Catelyn’s viewpoint is that of a desperate yet very loving mother. At the end of the day, her only wish is for her family to be together and she will do anything, even breaking laws, to accomplish that goal.
That line of thinking though proves fatal. Catelyn does understand the politics better than Robb but she makes a few critical mistakes because of her maternal love for her children. Perhaps, the biggest mistake she made is releasing Jaime Lannister with Brienne to try and retrieve her hostage daughters from King’s Landing. In the book, Jaime reveals while drunk to Catelyn and Brienne his motive in pushing Bran from the window. A far less emotional yet calculating Catelyn would have seen her ace that could’ve stopped the war and ended Joffrey’s reign as king, especially with Brienne as the key witness. That would then would get her imprisoned, make Robb look weak to his banner men (especially the Karstarks who wanted revenge) while throwing away their key piece for negotiation.
If we continue to talk about Starks, we cannot pass up the opportunity to mention Jon Snow. While the whole R+L = J theory has yet to come to fruition, the important thing to understand is Jon Snow’s story as he grows to be a leader. Jon Snow falls into a typical bildungsroman format with him starting the novels out at 14 and being groomed from a boy into a man who ends up becoming the leader of the Night’s Watch. At first, Jon Snow starts off as being arrogant, cocky and unproven. Benjen is one of the first to force him to realize his attitude problem when he tells Jon how people earn their keep in the Night’s Watch. Ygritte constantly reminds Jon that “he knows nothing” which forces him to re-evaluate everything at all turns. In short, his growth is meant to be a humbling experience where, indeed, he is forced to earn everything.
Like other Starks, he does have a very volatile temper. He does have a good heart and generally good instincts when it comes to the nature of people. However, he’s still young and foolish and eventually he reminds himself of what Ygritte tells him. To become better though, he flocks to people like Mormont, Benjen, and Mance to be a mentor to him. By having all types of good leadership, he is able to improve his insight about situations. That isn’t to say that he’s perfect but he has that capability to learn, which is something many characters in the series (especially most Starks) lack.
Gradually, he builds himself to become a solid leader, which is why partly how he managed to become the Night’s Watch leader. However, he still has impulsiveness which is probably his biggest weakness as we see him get ambushed by what apparently are his own men in A Dance with Dragons.
Another critical character in the North to talk about is Mance Rayder. He’s obviously important because he’s the self-proclaimed King-Beyond-the-Wall. From my point of view, Mance seems like a chaotic neutral type, borderlining on chaotic good. He does have his own code but follows no one. If anything you could describe the wildlings as anarchists (hence the name “wild”) Now, the situation is kinda weird if you think about it because how can a group of lawless people have a ruler?
Yet that’s pretty much how you can describe the situation. There’s an interesting video about the Pink Letter that Jon Snow receives at the end of A Dance with Dragons suggesting that it was written by a scheming Mance Rayder. The implication of Mance Rayder scheming for both the north and south right after he declared peace and cooperation with those at the Wall makes you wonder what Mance would have in mind. Again, as we’re discussing the subject of the Game of Thrones, we have to believe that Mance, too, might have an agenda for ruling in some form.
Here, I think an interesting concept is the preface of having a near complete anarchic state to dominate and whether that could be effectual. From a war movement, it seemed to have failed when the Night’s Watch repelled two attacks in the book and the one in the show (with help later by Stannis). Yet that doesn’t mean that Mance truly was defeated and that he has a bigger idea in mind.
How about Roose Bolton? Roose reminds me of a more sadistic version of Tywin. Cunning, calculating, power hungry and self-serving. His leadership qualities are shown rarely but it’s obvious that he is a master politician in being able to serve Robb Stark to the Lannisters and getting the Freys to join his cause. I feel that those who do follow Roose do so because they themselves are sadist such as Locke. In the novel, those who aren’t directly his soldiers are shown disdain and he exudes an inherently creepy feeling that inspires fear (such as when Arya acted as his serving girl). My interpretation of Roose pegs him as a neutral evil type that serves the Starks out of necessity but whose real concern is the expansion of their family name. We’ll have yet to see how well the Boltons fare but thus far my guess is not well since they are viewed as barbaric and backstabbing.
Now, let’s go across the Narrow Sea and pick up on Daenerys Targaryen. Daenerys to me is a chaotic good leader. Her qualities emanate from her heart as we see her decision making done through maternal instinct. Unlike Cersei and Catelyn though, Daenerys is still a very young girl but is forced to grow up fast, with much of her circumstance way beyond her control initially. While her family in name at one was powerful, Daenerys does not immediately have any sense of power as she had escaped with her brother and was hidden. If anything she’s a refugee and a slave initially to her brother’s machinations.
However, compared with anyone else in the novel/series, Daenerys possesses one (or rather three) unique element that give her true power above anyone else: dragons. Having dragons force the more primitive people where she’s at to treat her as a queen and maybe even a deity to some degree. Eventually, her reign becomes that of brute force where she conquers various slave cities through sheer power with both the armies she raises and the help of her dragons.
Yet her decisions to conquer are driven by her goal of returning to her homeland to reclaim the Iron Throne. In truth, one has to wonder if these, indeed, are her actual goals as we often see her wishing to herself to be elsewhere, living a humbler, quiet life before she’s sold off to marry Khal Drogo. Both these views and the circumstances she encounters with constants threats against her life, her people’s lives and her dragons’ lives make her very protective and paranoid. Fortunately, she does have a few decent advisers in Barristan Selmy and Jorah Mormont but ultimately her judgment comes from motherly instinct and raw emotion that can at times seem just yet brutal. These problems surface as she finds ruling to be tough and forces her to act against her better judgment (such as reinstating the slave pits).
If we talk about Daenerys we also have to include Viserys in the conversation. Viserys never gained any political power within the story except the few moments he had with Daenerys. In some ways, he reminded me of a male de-empowered version of Cersei because of his abusive and highly entitled way of thinking as well as his lack of self-awareness. Like Cersei, Viserys seems to be nothing more than a simple tool who is wrongfully fed misinformation by people like Illyrio Mopatis about how people in Westeros secretly want him to return as the rightful king.
While motivated he shows almost no leadership skills and is a constant mockery of the Dothraki people. Part of the issue is that he shows no respect to the customs of the Dothraki nor any respect towards his sister. He’s perceived more as a flea and gets treated as such when Khal Drogo ends up pouring molten gold over his head. I suppose the lesson here is that if you want leadership, you still have to earn it rather than depend on titles and false rumors to give you such a reign. And if you do hear rumors, you should verify them on your own before you end up with the wrong crown on your head.
How about the Martells? One of the most interesting topics I’ve heard is the Dornish “master plan”. After Oberyn’s death when we head to Dorne in A Feast for Crows, we start to learn of their leader Prince Doran Martell. We find out that he’s scheming something huge with all the Sands and his children involved in a major plot. Although the specifics of the conspiracy are pretty vast, the main ideas seem to be getting revenge against the Lannisters and eventually taking the Iron Throne. But it’s very hard to commentate on Doran himself outside of a very patient and studious type. In some way, he reminds me of an older Tyrion with the proper power backing him. However, he seems more cutthroat and willing to risk anything to get his ends. It’s still too early to say what type of leader he is and more importantly how effective he is. Thus far, it seems that everything on the surface for him has backfired with Oberyn getting his head smashed and Quentyn failing in his mission to marry Daenarys or capture a dragon.
The other major party that should be included are the Tyrells. The Tyrells are a cunning, wealthy and very politically savvy family. The head acts like a loaf while the matron of the family has sharp wit and an expert plotter as we saw the successful demise of Joffrey. Margaery herself seems made for the Game of Thrones as we have seen her with three husbands, two already having met their demises, yet she remaining in the political picture. They seem like a nicer version of the Lannisters but we have yet to see them fully revealed.
With all the major families now mentioned, I want to get into two last characters worthy to bring up: Varys and Littlefinger. Both are incredibly fascinating characters with a lot of mystery surrounding them. It’s hard to see what their true motives are when they’ve both proven themselves to be utter liars with “plans within plans within plans.” By trade, Varys is a thief, informant, a trader of secrets and a master of disguise. Thus far, he continuously claims that his purpose in life at this point is to “serve the realm.” But whose realm is that? And more importantly, why?
He sees sexuality as something that weakens the individual and lust obscuring the mind (not just sexually btw) and corrupting people. It is known that he seems to be aligned with Illyrio Mopatis but it’s difficult to say at this point what Illyrio’s own motives are. Some say that they’re supporting the return of the Targaryens in either Daenerys or Aegon. But people also have claimed that Aegon isn’t a true Targaryen but an imposter who will use his false ancestral claim to gain a seat on the throne. While Varys does describe Aegon as being near perfect in his various training, it’s impossible to say if that’s his true feelings or if there is something bigger on the horizon since we cannot easily trust his character. Perhaps, at the end of it all, Varys does not want power for himself but, indeed, wishes the best for the realm and is objectively seeking someone to help match his ideal to create a place prosperous for everyone to live in. Still even as I wrote that I had my own doubts about the perfect scenario that tries to present.
Lastly, I want to go into Littlefinger. To me Varys and Littlefinger are exact polar opposites. I think Littlefinger was telling the truth when he revealed to Sansa on the boat how he “wants it all.” I feel that’s one of the few moments in the story where he, in fact, is not lying. So what is the commentary by George RR Martin on someone like a Littlefinger?
Littlefinger is the ultimate self-made man. He’s the kid that was kicked into the ditch and became very motivated to surpass the world. So in order to never be put into a similar situation again, he’ll do anything at any cost. During his speech with Sansa, he reveals how some won’t put any risk but for someone like himself who had nothing but everything to gain, the risk is the reward at the end. The speech about chaos being a ladder represents everything about him: His limitless ambition and desire for ultimate power.
But how does Littlefinger factor into a world like our own? The chief thing about Littlefinger’s rise in power is that he’s perceived as a background character, someone without motives, someone who understands how to keep quiet and when and someone who can read people easier than a book. He is the invisible power broker, the guy behind the scenes making the real moves in this world while thick headed leaders receive poor information that they’re either too lazy to verify for themselves or too emotionally invested to make a correct judgment.
I think he relates well to CFOs or the men in power over on Wallstreet. As the Master of Coin, Littlefinger controls the finances of the kingdom and we all know how important the economy is with regards to political control. One very curious thing in the show is the friend(s) Littlefinger mentions he has made recently. The obvious answer points directly to the Tyrells as they certainly aided him in assassinating Joffrey, implicating Tyrion and helped in getting Sansa out of the capital. But I’m going to propose a breakthrough idea here: his new friends are Iron Bank of Bravos.
The Iron Bank of Bravos is an interesting character unto itself that subtly makes its way into season 4 and shows up here and there at the Wall and for Stannis in the books. In some ways, the Iron Bank feels like a recent commentary regarding the various recessions in the last 15 years, especially the fall out with the derivatives markets and collapse of several major financial institutions. More than that, we’re seeing people make more connections between financial companies and politicians, which demonstrate where the real power of the world has moved towards (or simply unveiled itself more and more as years go by).
My gut tells me that Littlefinger would align with the Iron Bank because they are similar in many ways. Both understand money, they know what the objective bottom line is and know what it means to have failed leadership like Stannis or the Lannisters. Perhaps, with Littlefinger’s cunning, he managed to convince the Iron Bank to provide additional backing so that he could get his plans to fall into place with the Vale, Tyrells, Lannisters, etc.
At any rate, I’m missing other parties but I think these cover the vast majority of situations and commentaries on power and leadership. I hope to do another sometime soon.